In this article, we analyze the index ETF charts for a deeper look at the current support and resistance levels of $SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and $QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF). As a bonus, we also highlight the stealth relative strength of $MDY (S&P Midcap 400 ETF). New 52-week Lows on the NYSE have outnumbered New Highs for the past eight trading days.

However, for a McMillan Volatiltiy Band (MVB) buy signal to occur, SPX will have to trade at 4459 or higher. Barbara Kollmeyer is based in Madrid, where she leads MarketWatch’s pre-markets coverage of financial markets and writes the Need to Know column. For example, recession drawdowns in the early 1980s totaled 17% and 27%, and in 1990 that peak-to-trough move totaled 19.9%. “The 18.7% move down that’s already been seen in early 2022 is worse than one of the 1980s drawdowns and close to the 1990 drawdown.

1. If current support of the 20 and 50-day moving averages fails to hold, then look for $SPY to potentially form another higher swing low above the $375 area.
2. If that level fails to hold, then $QQQ would form a lower high and lower low, signaling a possible resumption of the dominant downtrend.
3. In general finance terms, support level is the level at which buyers tend to purchase or enter into a stock.
4. Market technician Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, told MarketWatch that several medium-term momentum gauges have deteriorated since the start of August as stocks have moved lower.
5. The officers or directors of McMillan Analysis Corporation, or accounts managed by such persons may have positions in the securities recommended in the advisory.

On Friday, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) was up 17.59% when news broke that Warren Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) had purchased a large stake in the company. At the same time, well-known activist investor Carl Icahn decided to sell his stake in OXY after three years. RBOB gasoline futures rallied more than 10% over the weekend but gave back most of its gains and closed just 1.17% higher on the day. Heating oil futures closed 4.82% higher despite reaching nearly 13% higher Sunday evening.

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The closer the trigger price to the current price, the more quickly it will come into play. A price projection of 0.00 is valid for a technical indicator if the calculation determines it will be impossible to trigger the signal. Some of these signals, such as Fibonacci Retracements, have a fixed bullish or bearish interpretation. Others, such as crossovers of a short-term and a long-term moving average, are interpreted as a reversal of the current signal. The Trader’s Cheat Sheet is a list of 50 commonly used technical indicators with the price projection for the next trading day that will cause each of the signals to be triggered.

Key Takeaways

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) was up 17.59%, PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) was up 16.62%, and Peabody Energy (BTU) was up 14.71% and led energy stocks. Fertilizer company Mosaic (MOS) was up 7.49%, grocer Kroger (KR) was up 6.79%, and industrial company Alcoa (AA) was up 9.37% and led non-energy companies. The Cboe Market Volatility Index (VIX) settled off its highs to end at 31.98 but stayed in a range, which reflects https://g-markets.net/ market uncertainty. In summary, as long as SPX continues to close above 4690, its chart remains bullish, and we would maintain a “core” long position along with that outlook. In any case, we will continue to take positions in line with confirmed signals from our indicators, whether bullish or bearish. Rising oil prices helped the energy sector to be one of two sectors in the green on Monday.

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Embargos on oil could be quite expensive, and it’s causing some analysts to change their projections. Analysts from Bank of America (BAC) said if Russia’s 5 million barrels per day were to end, oil prices could rise to $200. Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Groups (MUFG) were projecting oil at $180 per barrel and added, if that price was reached, it would probably cause a global recession.

The S&P 500 is clinging to a key support level after Friday’s meltdown, here’s what happens if that fails

Standard Deviation, which is a measure of past volatility, provides a mathematical possibility of trading range based on the mean values over the course of 1-year. These are useful in providing statistically important support and resistance levels. The S&P 500 falling to 3,500 also makes sense because it currently represents the rising 200-week moving average, Suttmeier said, which proved to be solid support level during market sell-offs in 2011, early 2016, and December 2018. WTI crude oil futures spiked over the weekend—trading as high as $130 per barrel—as an increasing number of companies are choosing not to buy Russian oil. Before the opening bell, oil prices had retreated to $120, which was still 3.85% higher than the closing price on Friday. The higher oil prices are pushing equity index futures lower in premarket trading.

The technical analyst offered further clarity on the matter by pointing to price levels that could serve as resistance. Several market shed some light on this matter, supplying technical analysis that traders can use when following the cryptocurrency. In one of the most significant proposals, Joe Biden would have the option to shut down the border if average daily crossings surpassed 4,000 in a week.

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Thus, they remain on sell signals and will continue to do so until they roll over and begin to decline. Even when the market rallies, it seems that there is a good deal of put buying, which keeps these ratios moving higher. “This was a major resistance level over the last 2 years that has since broken and been proven so far as a new support level,” said Sifling. The rising 200-week moving average for the S&P 500 currently sits at 3,503, with the index currently trading at 3,781. Stockton expects the S&P 500 to trend towards its next support level of 3,505, which represents potential downside of about 8% from current levels. « Momentum gauges point lower, and short-term oversold conditions are not widespread, » Stockton said.

Rising inflation and falling economic forecasts has rekindled talk of stagflation. Stagflation is the economic phenomenon where a country sees rising inflation despite a slow economy. The United States experienced stagflation in the late 1970s, which resulted in the Fed hiking the overnight rate to 20% in the early 1980s. The downside pressure for stocks has been led by the technology sector amid a hawkish pivot from the Federal Reserve, with several interest rate hikes appearing likely this year.

A decline to that level represents additional downside potential of 8% from Friday’s close. On Tuesday, the Nasdaq 100 Index hit a low of 15,292, which is well below Stockton’s support level. If the support level is the price that a stock does not go below, hanging man candlestick the resistance level is the a price point at which a stock has trouble growing past. Think of the the support level as the floor, and the resistance level as the ceiling. At this point, you have an established support level of $7 and a resistance at $15.

Support and Resistance points are based on end-of-day prices and are intended for the current trading session if the market is open, or the next trading session if the market is closed. There are many popular indicators that incorporate these concepts, like price by volume charts and moving averages, that are more actionable than the simpler visualizations. Generally traders will want to see the support band rather than a single line connecting the lowest lows as there is always a chance support will move up and the order for a long position will go un-executed. In general finance terms, support level is the level at which buyers tend to purchase or enter into a stock. When a price of stock falls towards its support level, the support level holds and is confirmed, or the stock continues to decline and the previously demonstrated support level must change to incorporate the new lows. Support levels in stocks can be created by limit orders or simply the market action of traders and investors.

Investors appeared to favor the defensive nature of utilities overall because the Utilities Select Sector Index rose 1.31%. Treasuries also benefited from investors searching for safe havens because the 10-year Treasury yield (TNX) fell 1.57%. Gold futures rallied 1.81%, moving back above $2,000 and returning to August 2020 highs. In addition to trendlines and moving averages, we will be closely monitoring how leading stocks and sectors react to weakness in the coming days. The relative performance of the leaders will lend credence to either the bull or bear case—both of which are valid at this point. After bouncing off its 2-year low in October 2022, $SPY tried to break out above its long-term downtrend line 2 months later.

The S&P 500 futures are down about 0.86% as the benchmark index is testing the 4,300 support level once again. This level has been an important level over the last few weeks and even back into July of 2021. Momentum indicators like the 50-day and 200-day moving averages have been reliable signposts for market performance since the beginning of 2022. Last year, the S&P 500 reliably sold off shortly after touching, or breaking above its 200-day moving average. About 17% of S&P 500 stocks are currently trading above their 50-day moving average, which is a level that has been consistent with bottoms during market corrections in the past.

Grain manufacturer Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) rallied more than 1% on the news and is up more than 13% from its February low. Government officials are hoping that reduced sanctions on Iran and Venezuela will get more oil supplies to market and help alleviate some of the pricing pressures. If the S&P 500 reaches Stockton’s downside target of 4,200, that would represent a sell-off of 13% from its record high reached on January 4. My Barchart members have the option to export the data to an Excel spreadsheet or as a .csv file.

Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Groups (MUFG) were projecting oil at $180 per barrel and added if that price was reached it would probably cause a global recession. The missing ingredient for a stock market recovery right now, according to Stockton, is a consolidation in interest rates. If interest rates can stop moving higher, that would be a good sign that stock prices can stage a recovery. The CNBC Rapid Update shows that the median forecast for the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1 is just 0.5%.